The jobs that are growing, and the ones that are shrinking
Three official or well-known outlooks on which jobs will grow or shrink: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2025–35 projections, Canada's COPS 2024–2033 shortage and surplus assessment, and the World Economic Forum's 2025 employer survey. All three are projections, not counts of what has already happened. They agree on the direction: health care, skilled trades, data and security work, and clean-energy installation are growing, and routine clerical work (data entry, typing, bank tellers, cashiers) is shrinking. Ageing populations and electricity demand drive the growth; AI and automation are the main pressure on office and administrative jobs.
6 sources · 59 tier A · 26 tier B · prepared 2026-09-21
01
US: fastest-growing jobs
BLS projects total US employment to grow 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, from 170.3 million to 176.2 million jobs. These occupations are projected to grow fastest in percentage terms. Many are small, so a high rate can mean only a few thousand jobs. These are BLS projections, which the agency says are 'not intended to be a forecast'.
| All occupations Slower than the 10.9% growth recorded over 2015–25 (s1). |
+3.5% (+5.9 million jobs)A |
| Nurse practitioners NOC 3130 343,130 employed in Canada Projection, 2025 to 2035; 2025 is estimated employment. Fastest of all detailed occupations. |
+41.0% (+137,800)A |
| Solar photovoltaic installers Small base: 31,100 jobs in 2025. |
+36.5% (+11,300)A |
| Data scientists NOC 2121 27,545 employed in Canada Median wage $120,230 (2025). |
+34.6% (+95,400)A |
| Wind turbine service technicians Small base: 11,800 jobs in 2025. |
+29.5% (+3,500)A |
| Medical and health services managers NOC 3001 36,700 employed in Canada |
+24.2% (+155,100)A |
| Physical therapist assistants NOC 3210 162,730 employed in Canada |
+23.0% (+26,200)A |
| Psychiatric technicians | +22.3% (+36,000)A |
| Computer and information research scientists | +21.8% (+8,400)A |
| Physician assistants NOC 3130 343,130 employed in Canada |
+21.1% (+35,700)A |
| Information security analysts NOC 2122 202,605 employed in Canada |
+21.0% (+40,600)A |
| Home health and personal care aides NOC 4410 96,360 employed in Canada Also the largest numeric gain of any occupation. |
+18.1% (+847,300)A |
02
US: most jobs added
Ranked by the number of jobs added, the list is led by large occupations with modest growth rates, many of them lower-paid. BLS says healthcare and social assistance will account for about 37% of all new jobs through 2035.
| Home health and personal care aides NOC 4410 96,360 employed in Canada Median wage $35,800 (2025). |
+847,300 (4.68M to 5.52M)A |
| Stockers and order fillers | +250,700A |
| Fast food and counter workers NOC 6520 408,590 employed in Canada |
+223,300A |
| Registered nurses NOC 3130 343,130 employed in Canada |
+194,700A |
| General and operations managers | +181,300A |
| Software developers NOC 2123 276,895 employed in Canada |
+174,700 (+10.2%)A |
| Cooks, restaurant NOC 6320 201,105 employed in Canada |
+171,400A |
| Medical and health services managers NOC 3001 36,700 employed in Canada |
+155,100A |
| Construction laborers NOC 7511 193,435 employed in Canada |
+109,300A |
| Management analysts NOC 1120 333,310 employed in Canada |
+109,200A |
| Industrial machinery mechanics NOC 7240 160,285 employed in Canada |
+79,700 (+17.8%)A |
| Electricians NOC 7220 156,250 employed in Canada |
+75,900 (+9.2%)A |
| Healthcare and social assistance sector About 37.0% of all projected new jobs. |
+2.2 million jobs (+9.5%)A |
03
US: fastest-declining jobs
The fastest projected declines are in routine clerical work and in some older manufacturing crafts. BLS attributes the clerical declines partly to automation tools, including AI. Office and administrative support is the fastest-shrinking major group.
| Word processors and typists Projection, 2025 to 2035; 2025 is estimated employment. |
-34.4% (-13,900)A |
| Telephone operators | -27.6% (-1,000)A |
| Switchboard operators, incl. answering service | -26.0% (-9,200)A |
| Data entry keyers NOC 1411 50,875 employed in Canada |
-25.5% (-33,600)A |
| Foundry mold and coremakers | -23.0% (-2,900)A |
| Telemarketers | -21.4% (-13,000)A |
| Order clerks | -17.5% (-13,800)A |
| Payroll and timekeeping clerks NOC 1310 343,080 employed in Canada |
-15.9% (-25,400)A |
| File clerks | -15.8% (-12,000)A |
| Sewing machine operators | -15.1% (-17,700)A |
| Office and administrative support (major group) Largest projected loss of any major group; BLS cites automation tools, including AI. |
-4.0% (-752,100)A |
| Sales and related (major group) BLS cites e-commerce and AI tools in the sales process. |
-1.4%A |
| Retail trade (industry) Projected decline as e-commerce limits store employment. |
-0.2% (about -27,500)A |
04
Canada: shortage versus surplus
ESDC's COPS rates about 485 NOC 2021 occupations on whether they risk labour shortage or surplus over 2024–2033. It compares projected job openings with projected job seekers, starting from 2021–2023 conditions. Over 100 occupations are at risk of shortage; 17 are at risk of surplus. The ratings are model projections, not measured vacancies.
| Occupations at risk of shortage, 2024–2033 ESDC says 'over 100'; 103 are listed. Concentrated in health, natural and applied sciences, construction and transportation. |
103 of about 485A |
| Occupations at risk of surplus, 2024–2033 Mostly art, culture, recreation and sport. |
17A |
| Projected job openings, 2024–2033 2.6M from growth, 5.5M replacement (4.3M from retirements); replacement is 68.1% of openings. |
8.1 millionA |
| Projected job seekers, 2024–2033 5.9M school leavers, 2.6M immigrants. The model assumed 2023 immigration targets, which were higher than the ones announced in Oct 2024. |
8.2 millionA |
| Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses NOC 3130 343,130 employed in Canada NOC 31301; other strong-risk health roles include nurse practitioners, LPNs, pharmacists and family physicians. |
Strong risk of shortageA |
| Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates NOC 3310 449,895 employed in Canada NOC 33102 |
Strong risk of shortageA |
| Home support workers, caregivers NOC 4410 96,360 employed in Canada NOC 44101 |
Strong risk of shortageA |
| Early childhood educators and assistants; social workers NOC 4220 451,370 employed in Canada NOC 42202, 41300 |
Strong risk of shortageA |
| Carpenters NOC 7231 166,465 employed in Canada NOC 72310 |
Strong risk of shortageA |
| Heavy-duty equipment mechanics; HVAC mechanics NOC 7240 160,285 employed in Canada NOC 72401, 72402 |
Strong risk of shortageA |
| Electricians; plumbers; welders NOC 7220 156,250 employed in Canada NOC 72200, 72300, 72106 |
Risk of shortage (moderate)A |
| Cybersecurity specialists; civil, mechanical and electrical engineers NOC 2122 202,605 employed in Canada NOC 21220, 21300, 21301, 21310 |
Risk of shortage (moderate)A |
| Graphic designers and illustrators NOC 5212 104,260 employed in Canada NOC 52120 |
Strong risk of surplusA |
| Information systems testing technicians NOC 2222 134,170 employed in Canada NOC 22222 |
Strong risk of surplusA |
| Data entry clerks; statistical officers NOC 1411 50,875 employed in Canada NOC 14111, 12113 |
Risk of surplus (moderate)A |
05
Global: WEF employer expectations
The WEF figures come from a survey of more than 1,000 employers with over 14 million workers in 55 economies. They record what employers expect for 2025–2030, scaled up with ILO employment data. They are expectations, not measured job counts. The report plots percentage changes for each role as bars without printing the numbers, so roles are listed here by rank.
| Jobs created by 2030 Survey-based projection over roughly 1.2 billion formal jobs in WEF's dataset. |
170 million (14% of today's)B |
| Jobs displaced by 2030 Survey-based projection. |
92 million (8%)B |
| Net change by 2030 Structural churn of 22% of current jobs. |
+78 million (+7%)B |
| Fastest-growing roles (by %) Top four in rank order. Security management, data warehousing, autonomous and electric vehicle specialists, and UI/UX designers follow. |
Big data specialists; fintech engineers; AI and machine-learning specialists; software developersB |
| Green roles in the top 15 fastest-growing | Autonomous/EV specialists; environmental engineers; renewable energy engineersB |
| Fastest-declining roles (by %) Then administrative assistants, printing workers and bookkeeping/payroll clerks. |
Postal service clerks; bank tellers; data entry clerks; cashiers and ticket clerksB |
| Largest growth in number of jobs NOC 8510 55,975 employed in Canada About 35 million more jobs by 2030. Delivery drivers, building trades, shop salespersons and food-processing workers follow. |
Farmworkers, labourers and other agricultural workersB |
| Largest decline in number of jobs NOC 6510 556,955 employed in Canada |
Cashiers and ticket clerks; administrative assistants and executive secretariesB |
| Care and education roles Nursing professionals, social work and counselling professionals, personal care aides, university and secondary teachers. |
Among the largest-growingB |
| Graphic designers; legal secretaries NOC 5212 104,260 employed in Canada WEF describes this as a first, linked to generative AI; in 2023 it had graphic designers as a moderately growing job. |
Just outside top 10 fastest-decliningB |
06
Skills rising and falling (WEF)
WEF asked employers whether each skill would become more or less important by 2030. The score is net: the share expecting an increase minus the share expecting a decrease. These are survey expectations.
| AI and big data Fastest-rising skill. |
Net +87B |
| Networks and cybersecurity | Net +70B |
| Technological literacy | Net +68B |
| Creative thinking; resilience, flexibility and agility | Net +66 eachB |
| Curiosity and lifelong learning | Net +61B |
| Environmental stewardship First time in WEF's top 10 rising skills. |
Net +53B |
| Reading, writing and mathematics | Net -4B |
| Manual dexterity, endurance and precision First net decline for this skill in the report series. |
Net -24B |
| Share of workers' skills expected to change by 2030 Down from 44% (2023 edition) and 57% (2020). |
39%B |
| Workers needing training by 2030 Employers expect 11 of those 59 not to receive it. |
59 in 100B |
| Most-valued core skill today 7 in 10 employers call it essential. |
Analytical thinkingB |
07
What is driving it
All three reports name the same forces: technology and AI, an ageing population, and the energy transition. Each claim below is the report's own explanation for its projection.
| US: ageing and chronic disease drive health jobs The two healthcare groups account for almost one-third of new jobs through 2035. |
Healthcare support +13.3%, practitioners +8.0%A |
| US: electricity demand, including AI data centres Only about 58,800 jobs, because the sector is small. |
Utilities +9.8%, the fastest-growing sectorA |
| US: AI infrastructure | Computing infrastructure/data processing/web hosting +25.1% (+120,400)A |
| US: AI productivity dampens some jobs BLS cites generative AI and automation tools. |
Office admin -4.0%; arts/design/media limitedA |
| US: BLS AI exposure categories Ranks occupations by theoretical and observed AI exposure. |
New data product with the 2025–35 releaseA |
| Canada: retirements dominate openings The assumptions list population ageing, automation and the green transition as structural forces. |
68.1% of openings are replacement demandA |
| Global: technology is the biggest driver of both creation and loss Robots and autonomous systems are the largest net displacer, at -5 million. |
Digital access +19M / -9M; AI +11M / -9MB |
| Global: automation of tasks Employer estimate. |
Human-only share of tasks 47% now, about 33% by 2030B |
| Global: ageing and declining working-age populations Drives nursing and other care roles. |
+11M created, -7M displaced, +4M netB |
| Global: climate adaptation and mitigation Energy generation, storage and distribution adds another +1M net. |
+5M and +3M net jobsB |
| Global: employer response to AI Two-thirds plan to hire people with AI skills. |
40% expect to cut staff where AI automatesB |
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Looked for and not found
Claims this page would have made if a source could be opened. They are left out rather than guessed.
- The brief asked for BLS 2024–34. BLS replaced it with 2025–35 on 2026-08-27, so this page uses the newer release. The 2024–34 tables were not re-read.
- bls.gov returned 403 to every scripted request. BLS figures were read from Internet Archive copies of the official pages, captured 2026-09-16/17. They are kept at tier A because they are the agency's own tables, unaltered.
- The BLS table of occupations with the largest numeric declines (occupations-most-job-declines.htm) was not archived and could not be opened, so numeric-decline rankings are omitted.
- WEF's per-role percentage growth rates are shown only as unlabelled bars in Figures 2.2–2.3. The text layer does not give the values, so roles are given by rank without percentages.
- NOC links for US and global rows map US SOC or WEF role names to the closest Canadian NOC minor group, based on judgement. Rows with no clean match, such as solar installers, wind technicians and telemarketers, have no code.
§
Sources
- Employment Projections — 2025-2035 (news release USDL-26-1422); read via Internet Archive copy of 2026-09-16 because bls.gov refuses scripted requests — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-08A
- Table 1.3 Fastest growing occupations, 2025 and projected 2035; read via Internet Archive copy of 2026-09-16 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-08A
- Table 1.4 Occupations with the most job growth, 2025 and projected 2035; read via Internet Archive copy of 2026-09-17 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-08A
- Table 1.5 Fastest declining occupations, 2025 and projected 2035; read via Internet Archive copy of 2026-09-16 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-08A
- Summary of results (2024-2033) — Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) — Employment and Social Development Canada, 2025-01A
- Future of Jobs Report 2025 — World Economic Forum, 2025-01B