Vertical software45% entry signalMarket screen5 sourced figuresOne thing must be trueincumbent vulnerability

MSP Remote Monitoring & Service Automation

Prepared 2026-09-09

The buyer population — Computer systems design and related services

Base industry report for 5415 →
Establishments · CanadaA
41,746
with employees
Under 10 employeesA
87%
most common size: 1–4
Establishments · USA
145,211
Employment · USA
2,126,573
15 per establishment
Payroll · USA
$261.7B
$123k per employee

Of 41,746 Canadian establishments with employees, 87% have fewer than ten — an industry of very small operators. Each of those is one potential account, before any filter for size or fit.

Entry signal — what decides who wins here

One thing must be true
Structure decides One thing must be true Execution decides

Entry turns on a single condition that can be named and tested before much is spent. Clear it and this becomes an execution question; fail it and no amount of operating skill helps.

What you would have to beat

Displace an incumbent the screen found well defended — payments attached to the workflow, data that does not leave, a contract that renews itself. Share here means giving a buyer a reason to break something that currently works, which is a higher bar than being better.

How it was read
Binding constraintUNVERIFIEDincumbent vulnerability — Executional — a better operator can move it.
Measured inputsUNVERIFIEDnot applied — This is a software market. The industry’s business counts describe its BUYERS, not the market being entered, so they are left out of the signal.
How many new establishments are still tradingA
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, US · opened 2020
83.3%
1 year
64%
3 years
50.8%
5 years
34.3%
10 years
opened 2015

Measured, not forecast: the share of US establishments opening in one year that were still active later. It counts good operators and bad ones together, which is exactly why it is the honest answer to “what are the odds”. It is for the whole sector rather than this market, and the ten-year figure comes from an older cohort because no younger one has reached ten years.

This is not a probability of success, and it is not a verdict on you. No survival probability is published per market, and inventing one would be worse than saying so. What the bar reads is how much of the outcome sits inside an operator's control: green means the hurdles are ones a better operator clears, red means the binding constraint is capital, an asset or a permission rather than execution. Someone arriving with an advantage this screen did not assume can win a market shown in red.

Companies named in this market · 5

The binding constraint — incumbent vulnerability

Five vendors hold roughly three-quarters of RMM and PSA and the top two are within a point and a half of each other, so the category is contested but closed to newcomers — NinjaOne needed $500M of ARR to reach third. Note a sizing contradiction: a published figure puts RMM/PSA vendor revenue above $20B, while the same source's shares imply roughly $2.8B once you divide NinjaOne's and Kaseya's disclosed revenue by their stated shares. The larger number is measuring MSP-delivered services, not vendor licences, and is recorded here only as a caution.

Angel-backed companies131
in the Canadian portfolio dataset
Province mixON 43, QC 34, AB 19, NB 9, NS 9, NL 6, BC 4, PE 3, US 2, SK 1, — 1

Sectors joined: Cybersecurity · SaaS · Technology · Dev Tools · B2B SaaS · AI

[UNVERIFIED] Sector-to-NAICS mapping is analyst judgment — see data/angel-sector-map.json. Counts are a per-record cross-reference and are not additive across records.

I

The incumbent

Who owns this market and who is coming for it. Fields a screen never reached say so rather than guessing.

Incumbent
Kaseya and ConnectWise
Scale
Kaseya's RMM and PSA lines generated $470M in 2025, +14.9%; ConnectWise leads on share at 23.8%
Share
ConnectWise 23.8%, Kaseya 22.5%, NinjaOne 14.6%, N-able 8.4%, HaloPSA 6% — top five ≈ 75%
Challengers
NinjaOne (>$500M ARR, ~70% growth, 35,000 customers), N-able (NYSE: NABL), HaloPSA, Atera, Syncro
Lock-in mechanism
Not assessed — screened before diligence
Price movement
Not assessed
Is the buyer consolidating?
Yes
F

Financials & market size — sourced

Figures that came from a filing, a results release or reputable reporting, each carrying its evidence tier.

Kaseya RMM + PSA revenue, 2025B $470M, +14.9%
NinjaOne ARR, fiscal 2025B >$500M at ~70% YoY growth
NinjaOne customersC 35,000 across 140 countries, +60% YoY
Vendor shares (ConnectWise / Kaseya / NinjaOne / N-able / HaloPSA)B 23.8% / 22.5% / 14.6% / 8.4% / 6%
Published RMM/PSA vendor revenueC $20B+, +16.4% — inconsistent with the share math above
$

Market size, derived

Built from the competitor set upward rather than quoted from a forecast. Published TAMs in these categories are frequently reverse-engineered from each other, so any published figure is checked against the vendor arithmetic rather than trusted on its own.

Revenue floor
$970M

Disclosed revenue from 2 of 5 named vendors. The market is at least this large.

Implied total — revenue ÷ share
$2.8B

Mean of 2 independent vendor estimates.

Published forecast
$20.0BGapC

Published figure differs from the share-implied total by 625%. Treat both as wide estimates.

How each vendor implies a total

Kaseya$470M ÷ 22.5% = $2.1B
NinjaOne$500M ÷ 14.6% = $3.4B

Independent estimates that agree are worth more than any single forecast; ones that diverge tell you the share figures are soft. Both are visible here on purpose.

Competitor set · 5 named · 2 disclose revenue · 5 with a published share

NameRevenueShareNote
ConnectWiseB not disclosed 23.8% Private (Thoma Bravo)
KaseyaB $470M 22.5% RMM + PSA lines, 2025
NinjaOneB $500M 14.6% ARR, fiscal 2025
N-ableNYSE: NABLB not disclosed 8.4%
HaloPSAC not disclosed 6%

Evidence

Evidence. Incumbent financials and market-share figures on this record ARE sourced (tier A/B, see the financials block). The cut factor and reasoning remain analyst judgment and were not tested against customers.

#

Where the industry talks

The associations, forums and events where people in this trade actually talk shop — where to listen before entering, and where the first customers are found. Each link was opened on the date shown.

AssociationInternationalA
GTIA (Global Technology Industry Association)
gtia.org · 3,700 members (2026-09)

'3,700+ member companies' per its home page; the former CompTIA channel community; runs ChannelCon.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationNorth AmericaA
The ASCII Group
ascii.com

Peer network for independent MSP owners founded 1984; its site says it is now part of GTIA; no member count on the page opened.

Checked 2026-09-22
ForumInternationalA
MSPGeek
mspgeek.org · 18,000 members (2026-09)

'18,000+ members' per its home page; free vendor-neutral Discord and forums run by MSP technicians; holds MSPGeekCon.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationInternationalA
MSPAlliance
mspalliance.com

International association of managed service providers; runs the MSP Verify compliance program; no member count on the page opened.

Checked 2026-09-22
PublicationUSA
ChannelPro Network
channelpronetwork.com

MSP news site and newsletter with regional live events.

Checked 2026-09-22
EventCanadaA
ChannelNext
channelnext.ca

Canadian IT-channel conference series (TechnoPlanet); next event listed 24 Sep 2026; publishes eChannelNEWS.

Checked 2026-09-22
EventUSA
IT Nation Connect Global
itnation.connectwise.com

ConnectWise's MSP conference, 4-6 Nov 2026, Orlando; the page claims 4,000+ attendees and 130+ exhibitors.

Checked 2026-09-22
SubredditInternationalC
r/msp
reddit.com

Blocked automated access (RSS returned 429); search results describe an active MSP-owner community on RMM/PSA stacks and pricing.

Checked 2026-09-22

Channel Daily News (channeldailynews.com), once the Canadian channel trade title, now serves online-casino pages and is dropped.

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The businesses it sells to

Operating-business records filed along the same branch of NAICS — the customers of this software, screened as businesses in their own right.