Vertical software45% entry signalMarket screen4 sourced figuresOne thing must be trueincumbent vulnerability

Freight Visibility & Transportation Management

Prepared 2026-09-09

The buyer population — Freight transportation arrangement

Base industry report for 4885 →
Establishments · CanadaA
3,020
with employees
Under 10 employeesA
67%
most common size: 1–4
Establishments · USA
22,383
Employment · USA
323,348
14 per establishment
Payroll · USA
$24.3B
$75k per employee

Of 3,020 Canadian establishments with employees, 67% have fewer than ten — mostly small operators. Each of those is one potential account, before any filter for size or fit.

Entry signal — what decides who wins here

One thing must be true
Structure decides One thing must be true Execution decides

Entry turns on a single condition that can be named and tested before much is spent. Clear it and this becomes an execution question; fail it and no amount of operating skill helps.

What you would have to beat

Displace an incumbent the screen found well defended — payments attached to the workflow, data that does not leave, a contract that renews itself. Share here means giving a buyer a reason to break something that currently works, which is a higher bar than being better.

How it was read
Binding constraintUNVERIFIEDincumbent vulnerability — Executional — a better operator can move it.
Measured inputsUNVERIFIEDnot applied — This is a software market. The industry’s business counts describe its BUYERS, not the market being entered, so they are left out of the signal.
How many new establishments are still tradingA
Transportation and Warehousing, US · opened 2020
84.1%
1 year
67.4%
3 years
52.7%
5 years
36.1%
10 years
opened 2015

Measured, not forecast: the share of US establishments opening in one year that were still active later. It counts good operators and bad ones together, which is exactly why it is the honest answer to “what are the odds”. It is for the whole sector rather than this market, and the ten-year figure comes from an older cohort because no younger one has reached ten years.

This is not a probability of success, and it is not a verdict on you. No survival probability is published per market, and inventing one would be worse than saying so. What the bar reads is how much of the outcome sits inside an operator's control: green means the hurdles are ones a better operator clears, red means the binding constraint is capital, an asset or a permission rather than execution. Someone arriving with an advantage this screen did not assume can win a market shown in red.

Companies named in this market · 13

The binding constraint — incumbent vulnerability

Two heavily funded visibility platforms plus a public Canadian consolidator (Descartes) already own the carrier-integration graph, which is the actual asset — thousands of carrier connections that take years to build and cannot be copied quickly. The fleet-side record at 4841 is cut for the same underlying reason. Nothing is disclosed here. Every vendor named on this record is private, or sits inside a parent that does not break the line out, so no revenue floor can be built and the market size is genuinely unknown rather than estimated.

I

The incumbent

Who owns this market and who is coming for it. Fields a screen never reached say so rather than guessing.

Incumbent
project44 and FourKites
Scale
Both raised at unicorn valuations and compete head-on for the same shipper accounts
Challengers
Descartes Systems (Canadian, public), Trimble Transportation, McLeod, E2open, Flexport, Blue Yonder TMS
Lock-in mechanism
Not assessed — screened before diligence
Price movement
Not assessed
Is the buyer consolidating?
No
F

Financials & market size — sourced

Figures that came from a filing, a results release or reputable reporting, each carrying its evidence tier.

Descartes Systems revenue, FY2025B above $645M, up 13% year over year on subscription and network services
E2open acquisition, May 2025B WiseTech Global agreed to acquire E2open at a $2.1B enterprise value — 3.5× EV/revenue and 9.7× EV/EBITDA
Implied E2open revenueB about $600M, from the $2.1B enterprise value at the stated 3.5× EV/revenue
Visibility leadersC project44, FourKites and Shippeo named the leading real-time transportation visibility platforms in 2025
$

Market size, derived

Built from the competitor set upward rather than quoted from a forecast. Published TAMs in these categories are frequently reverse-engineered from each other, so any published figure is checked against the vendor arithmetic rather than trusted on its own.

Revenue floor
$645M

Disclosed revenue from 1 of 6 named vendors. The market is at least this large.

Implied total — revenue ÷ share
—

No vendor has both a disclosed revenue and a published share.

Published forecast
—Floor only

Only a revenue floor is known — the true market is larger by whatever the undisclosed vendors earn.

Competitor set · 6 named · 1 disclose revenue

NameRevenueShareNote
project44C not disclosed — Private, venture-funded
FourKitesC not disclosed — Private, venture-funded
Descartes MacroPointB $645M — Descartes' FY2025 revenue above $645M, +13%, across TMS, visibility and customs — MacroPoint is the visibility piece and is not broken out
E2open (WiseTech Global)B not disclosed — Acquired at a $2.1B enterprise value in May 2025 at 3.5× EV/revenue, implying roughly $600M of revenue [derived]
Trimble (Transporeon)NASDAQ: TRMBC not disclosed — Transporeon sits inside Trimble's transportation segment; no line reported
Shippeo / TiveC not disclosed — Private, venture-funded; named among the visibility leaders but disclose nothing
S

Startups & challengers

Newer and smaller vendors going at the incumbent — funded challengers first. Named, not researched to the depth of the field above; a company with a page here links to it.

CompanyStageWhat it doesRaised
Flexport Funded challenger Freight forwarding and customs brokerage with a software platform for shippers —
Loadsmart Funded challenger Digital freight brokerage plus TMS and dock scheduling software for shippers. —
Logixboard Funded challenger Customer portal and shipment visibility for freight forwarders and brokers —
MVMNT Funded challenger TMS and brokerage operating system for freight brokers. —
Transfix Funded challenger Transportation management software for shippers and brokers (brokerage sold to NFI) —
Truckstop Funded challenger Freight load board, payments and carrier vetting for brokers and carriers —

Evidence

Evidence. Market size UNVERIFIED — the two visibility pure-plays, project44 and FourKites, are private and disclose nothing, and FourKites' "over 1 million shipments daily across 200+ countries" is a vendor claim [C]. Partly sourced 2026-09-16: Descartes' FY2025 revenue [B] gives the record a floor, and WiseTech's $2.1B acquisition of E2open at a stated 3.5× EV/revenue is the one multiple in this market anyone has published — the ~$600M revenue figure is derived from it, not reported. Verify before acting.

#

Where the industry talks

The associations, forums and events where people in this trade actually talk shop — where to listen before entering, and where the first customers are found. Each link was opened on the date shown.

AssociationCanadaA
CIFFA (Canadian International Freight Forwarders Association)
ciffa.com

Association for Canadian freight forwarders, freight brokers, customs brokers and warehouse operators; runs forwarding courses and an October conference.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationCanadaA
Supply Chain Canada
supplychaincanada.com · 4,000 members (2026-09)

'4,000 members strong' (individual supply chain professionals), per its About page; grants the SCMP designation.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationCanadaA
Freight Management Association of Canada (FMA-AGF)
fma-agf.ca

Shipper-side association ('the national voice of the shipper'). Site is live but thin; home page last modified May 2025.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationNorth AmericaA
Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA)
tianet.org · 2,000 members (2026-09)

'2,000 companies' per its home page headline; 3PLs and freight brokers, 70% small family-owned. Runs the TIA Freight Beat podcast and Technovations meeting.

Checked 2026-09-22
EventUSA
CSCMP EDGE
cscmp.org

Annual conference and exhibition of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals; EDGE 2026 registration open at check.

Checked 2026-09-22
EventInternationalA
Manifest
manife.st

Supply chain and logistics technology show, Las Vegas; February 8-10, 2027. manifestvegas.com redirects here.

Checked 2026-09-22
PublicationCanadaA
Inside Logistics
insidelogistics.ca

Canadian logistics and supply chain trade publication (formerly Canadian Shipper); articles dated September 2026 at check.

Checked 2026-09-22
SubredditNorth AmericaA
r/FreightBrokers
reddit.com

Subreddit for freight brokers; RSS feed returned posts dated 2026-09-22.

Checked 2026-09-22

r/logistics and r/supplychain could not be opened (Reddit 429) and were left off. FreightWaves is listed under the fleet record at 4841.

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The businesses it sells to

Operating-business records filed along the same branch of NAICS — the customers of this software, screened as businesses in their own right.