Operating business55% entry signalMarket screen5 sourced figuresOne thing must be trueincumbent vulnerability

Optometry & Vision Care Practice

Prepared 2026-09-09

The industry — Offices of optometrists

Base industry report for 621320 →
Establishments · CanadaA
3,019
with employees
Under 10 employeesA
83%
most common size: 1–4
Establishments · USA
22,781
Employment · USA
148,762
6.5 per establishment
Payroll · USA
$6.9B
$47k per employee

Of 3,019 Canadian establishments with employees, 83% have fewer than ten — an industry of very small operators.

Entry signal — what decides who wins here

One thing must be true
Structure decides One thing must be true Execution decides

Entry turns on a single condition that can be named and tested before much is spent. Clear it and this becomes an execution question; fail it and no amount of operating skill helps.

What you would have to beat

Displace an incumbent the screen found well defended — payments attached to the workflow, data that does not leave, a contract that renews itself. Share here means giving a buyer a reason to break something that currently works, which is a higher bar than being better.

How it was read
Binding constraintUNVERIFIEDincumbent vulnerability — Executional — a better operator can move it.
How fragmented the field isA83% of establishments have fewer than ten employees — Fragmented — there is share to take and no scale operator to displace.
What it costs to be in the businessUNVERIFIEDmedium capital — The structural profile of subsector 621, inherited by every industry beneath it.
How many new establishments are still tradingA
Health Care and Social Assistance, US · opened 2020
84%
1 year
65.3%
3 years
52.6%
5 years
36.4%
10 years
opened 2015

Measured, not forecast: the share of US establishments opening in one year that were still active later. It counts good operators and bad ones together, which is exactly why it is the honest answer to “what are the odds”. It is for the whole sector rather than this market, and the ten-year figure comes from an older cohort because no younger one has reached ten years.

This is not a probability of success, and it is not a verdict on you. No survival probability is published per market, and inventing one would be worse than saying so. What the bar reads is how much of the outcome sits inside an operator's control: green means the hurdles are ones a better operator clears, red means the binding constraint is capital, an asset or a permission rather than execution. Someone arriving with an advantage this screen did not assume can win a market shown in red.

Companies named in this market · 5

The binding constraint — incumbent vulnerability

Two forces squeeze the independent optometrist from opposite ends. Below, the optical chains sell the glasses that carry the margin — National Vision alone runs 1,250 stores on $1.99B of revenue, with an exam priced as a loss leader for the frame sale. Above, the elective procedures that would lift the average ticket are performed in surgical centres the practice does not own, and online lens retail keeps taking the repeat purchase. The exam is the least profitable part of the visit, and it is the only part an independent reliably controls. Note what the chain's own filing now shows: the footprint is no longer expanding quickly. After exiting its Walmart and AC Lens businesses in fiscal 2024, National Vision opened 33 stores and closed 23 in fiscal 2025 for a net gain of ten — 0.8% — and guides to 30–35 openings in fiscal 2026 against 69 in fiscal 2024. Growth is coming from the existing base instead: comparable store sales rose 5.9%, and managed care is now 42% of revenue.

Market scalenationalunit: one clinic or store

Routine eye care is a catchment business, but two things about it are measured nationally: chain retail revenue, and the price of the elective procedure that sits on top.

Handle — National Vision, and LASIK pricing. National Vision reports what a 1,250-store optical chain earns — $1.99B in fiscal 2025 — which sets a per-store benchmark an independent can be measured against. Read it on the post-2024 basis: the Walmart and AC Lens operations are in discontinued operations, so this is a smaller and cleaner chain than the $2.1B / 1,413-store business the same company reported for fiscal 2023. LASIK is the other handle and a weaker one: the per-eye price is widely published, but no reliable national procedure volume could be sourced, so the elective half of this market cannot be sized from the outside. That gap is stated rather than filled with an estimate.

National Vision net revenue, fiscal 2025A $1.9875B, +9.0% — 53 weeks ended 2026-01-03, 10-K filed 2026-03-04
National Vision store countA 1,250 at 2026-01-03, up from 1,240 — America's Best 1,057, Eyeglass World 122, Military 53, Fred Meyer 18
National Vision revenue by brand, fiscal 2025A America's Best $1,743.3M, Eyeglass World $202.4M, Military $23.6M, Fred Meyer $9.6M; corporate and other $21.0M less $12.4M of deferred and unearned revenue effects
LASIK price per eye, 2025–26C ~$2,246–$2,632 average; range $1,499–$3,500
US LASIK procedure volumeUNVERIFIED Not sourced — no reliable figure found
Revenue per chain store~$1.59M a yearB

National Vision's $1,987.5M of fiscal 2025 net revenue divided by its 1,250 stores at year end. A chain benchmark with chain economics behind it — an independent optometrist's practice does not reach it, and the gap is the point. Two caveats: fiscal 2025 was a 53-week year, worth about $35.6M of the total, and the company's own new-store model targets only $1.5M–$1.7M of sales in year five, so the average is carried by the mature base.

I

Who you would be competing with

The operators already at scale here, and whoever is buying these businesses. In most of these industries the competition an entrant meets is local, so this is who sets the terms rather than a list of everyone in the trade.

Largest operator
National Vision (NASDAQ: EYE) and EssilorLuxottica
Scale
National Vision fiscal 2025 net revenue $1.987B, +9.0%, across 1,250 stores — a 53-week year in which the extra week added $35.6M
Concentration
No published share of eye exams; the chains' position is in retail optical rather than in clinical care
Others in the field
EssilorLuxottica (LensCrafters, Pearle), Warby Parker, Specsavers, Costco Optical, plus independent practices and online lens retail
Lock-in mechanism
Not assessed — screened before diligence
Price movement
Not assessed for exams; LASIK pricing is published and ranges from $1,499 to $3,500 per eye
Is the buyer consolidating?
Yes
F

Financials & market size — sourced

Figures that came from a filing, a results release or reputable reporting, each carrying its evidence tier.

National Vision net revenue, fiscal 2025A $1.9875B, +9.0% (from $1.8233B); the 53rd week contributed $35.6M. 53 weeks ended 2026-01-03, 10-K filed 2026-03-04
National Vision storesA 1,250 at 2026-01-03, up 0.8% from 1,240 — 33 America's Best opened, 12 America's Best and 11 Fred Meyer closed
National Vision comparable store sales, fiscal 2025A +5.9% (adjusted +6.0%), driven by higher average ticket against slightly lower traffic
National Vision profitability, fiscal 2025A Operating income $58.8M and net income $29.6M, against a $10.4M operating loss and $28.5M net loss in fiscal 2024; adjusted EBITDA $192.9M
LASIK average price per eyeC ~$2,246–$2,632
$

Market size, derived

Built from the competitor set upward rather than quoted from a forecast. Published TAMs in these categories are frequently reverse-engineered from each other, so any published figure is checked against the vendor arithmetic rather than trusted on its own.

Revenue floor
$2.0B

Disclosed revenue from 1 of 3 named vendors. The market is at least this large.

Implied total — revenue ÷ share
—

No vendor has both a disclosed revenue and a published share.

Published forecast
—Floor only

Only a revenue floor is known — the true market is larger by whatever the undisclosed vendors earn.

Competitor set · 3 named · 1 disclose revenue

NameRevenueShareNote
National VisionNASDAQ: EYEA $2.0B — Fiscal 2025 net revenue from continuing operations (53 weeks ended 2026-01-03), 10-K filed 2026-03-04 — retail optical, not clinical eye care
EssilorLuxotticaC not disclosed — Listed in Paris; the optical retail and lens businesses are not broken out at this level
Warby Parker / Specsavers / Costco OpticalC not disclosed — Not researched for this record

Evidence

Evidence. Incumbent financials on this record ARE sourced (tier A/B, see the financials block). Refreshed 2026-09-20 against National Vision's Form 10-K for the 53 weeks ended 2026-01-03, filed 2026-03-04. This was more than a roll-forward: the record previously carried '$2.3B, +4.5%, more than 1,300 stores, after opening 50', and none of those three numbers matches any figure National Vision has filed. The company reports $1.9875B of net revenue from continuing operations, +9.0%, across 1,250 stores, having opened 33 and closed 23. The likely source of the old figures is the pre-2024 reporting basis — revenue peaked at $2.126B in fiscal 2023 and store count at 1,413 — before the Walmart and AC Lens operations were reclassified to discontinued operations during fiscal 2024, which restated fiscal 2023 down to $1.823B of continuing revenue and 1,188 stores. A human should note that the old $2.3B figure cannot be tied to either basis and was probably never right. The cut factor and reasoning remain analyst judgment and were not tested against operators.

#

Where the industry talks

The associations, forums and events where people in this trade actually talk shop — where to listen before entering, and where the first customers are found. Each link was opened on the date shown.

AssociationCanadaA
Canadian Association of Optometrists (CAO)
opto.ca

National body for optometrists; publishes the Canadian Journal of Optometry and runs the CCOA assistant program. No member count published.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationOntarioA
Ontario Association of Optometrists (OAO)
optom.on.ca

Largest provincial optometry association; symposium, webinars, job board. No member count published.

Checked 2026-09-22
AssociationUSA
American Optometric Association (AOA)
aoa.org

US professional body with a Center for Independent Practice for practice owners. No member count found on pages opened.

Checked 2026-09-22
EventNorth AmericaA
Vision Expo
visionexpo.com

Main eyecare and eyewear trade show (RX); next 10-13 March 2027, Las Vegas; site cites 8,000+ professionals and 300+ exhibitors in 2026.

Checked 2026-09-22
PublicationUSA
Review of Optometry
reviewofoptometry.com

Clinical and practice-management magazine for optometrists; daily news feed dated the day of check.

Checked 2026-09-22
ForumNorth AmericaA
ODwire.org
odwire.org

Independent eye-care professional community: private forums, classifieds, webinars, CEwire; XenForo board. No member count published.

Checked 2026-09-22
PublicationCanadaA
Optical Prism
opticalprism.ca

Canadian eyewear and eyecare trade magazine (October 2026 issue live); hosts The 20/20 Podcast and Optometry Unleashed.

Checked 2026-09-22

Optometry Times blocks automated access and was left off; r/optometry could not be verified from this network.

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Software serving this industry

Vertical software markets filed along the same branch of NAICS — who sells to these businesses, and who an entrant would have to displace.

Vertical softwareScreenedsame industry
Optometry Practice Management & EHR SoftwareOne thing must be true
binding constraint: incumbent vulnerability
Incumbent Eyefinity (VSP Vision) — Encompass, the successor to OfficeMate/ExamWRITER

How this differs from general EHR and practice management (6211). The general record is about Epic and the hospital market, where certification and clinician training decide who wins. An optometry office is a clinic with a shop attached. The software has to run the eye exam (refraction, pre-test device data, retinal imaging) and also an optical store: frame and contact-lens inventory, a point-of-sale counter, and lens orders sent to labs. The money side runs on two tracks. Routine eye exams and eyewear are paid through vision plans (VSP, EyeMed and others), which have their own eligibility checks, authorizations and claims. Medical eye care is billed to ordinary health insurance. Generic EHRs do not do frames, lab orders or vision-plan claims, which is why the category exists. The incumbent is a payer. Eyefinity is part of VSP Vision, the largest vision plan, and sells the only optometry software with a direct connection to VSP for real-time eligibility, authorizations and claims [C, vendor]. That claims link is the moat. In October 2025 NextGen Healthcare licensed it too: its ophthalmology and optometry customers now get Eyefinity's VSP claims, frame inventory, point of sale and lab ordering [B, NextGen release]. The independents are old and private. RevolutionEHR (Madison, founded 2006, majority-owned by the RevOptix investor group since 2014 [B]) claims 13,000+ eye care professionals [C]. Crystal PM (Austin) claims 8,000+ independent optometry providers [C]. Compulink (since 1985) also sells to ophthalmology and other specialties. Sightview, formerly Eye Care Leaders, was sold to unnamed owners in July 2024 and carries My Vision Express alongside iMedicWare, Medflow and ManagementPlus [B]. Ocuco (Dublin; €60M minority investment from Accel-KKR in 2023 [B]; 6,750+ sites in 88 countries [C]) sells optical retail and lab software, and its Canadian arm grew out of the EMRlogic acquisition. The one funded newcomer is small. Barti raised a $12M Series A led by Five Elms Capital in August 2025, with AOAExcel (the American Optometric Association's for-profit arm) as an investor [B]. It sells an AI-first all-in-one system and has onboarded about 200 practices [C]. Patient messaging is a separate layer owned by Weave (NYSE: WEAV; $239.0M revenue in 2025, 39,625 customer locations across dental, optometry and other verticals [A]), and Eyefinity lists Weave as an integration partner. The buyer is consolidating. By the end of 2023, private-equity platforms ran hundreds of offices each: MyEyeDr 842, AEG Vision 400+, EyeCare Partners 385+, Keplr Vision 278 [B, Vision Monday]. Those groups standardise on one system and negotiate enterprise terms, which leaves a shrinking independent market split among 25-year-old vendors that each claim thousands of providers. A new entrant would need the vision-plan claims link the payer owns, the device and lab integrations the incumbents built over two decades, and a buyer that is not being acquired. Incumbent vulnerability decides it. No optometry software vendor publishes revenue.

NAICS 62132010 vendors named4 sourced figuresOpen →
Vertical softwareScreenedfiled at 621
Healthcare Revenue Cycle & Admin SoftwareOne thing must be true
binding constraint: incumbent vulnerability
Incumbent Optum (Change Healthcare)

What this category is. The back office between a care provider and whoever pays: eligibility checks, claims and the clearinghouse that carries them, coding, denials and appeals, payer-to-provider payments, patient statements and collections, and the credentialing and enrolment that let a clinician bill a plan at all. The coded customer is ambulatory care (621): physician groups, clinics, labs and home health. But the largest buyers of several segments are hospitals and health systems (outsourced revenue cycle, inpatient coding) and health plans (payer payments, provider data, credentialing). How it differs from the neighbouring records. Electronic health records and practice management (6211) sells the chart and scheduling; athenahealth appears here only for its revenue-cycle business, and its funding is not re-researched. EHR+ patient engagement (6211) sells the portal and intake. Patient booking (6211) sells patient acquisition. HIPAA compliance (6211) sells security and audit. Medical imaging (621510) sells PACS. This record is the money and paperwork layer. Who owns the rails. Optum completed its combination with Change Healthcare on 3 October 2022 [A, Optum]. The February 2024 ransomware attack on Change touched about 192.7 million individuals, the largest US healthcare breach on record [B, CyberInsider citing the HHS OCR filing], and stopped claims for providers across the country. That shows how much of the network runs through one company. Availity says it connects over two million providers to every US health plan and handles over 13 billion transactions a year; its shareholders include Anthem (Elevance), Humana, HCSC and GuideWell, and Novo Holdings bought Francisco Partners' stake in July 2021 [A, Novo Holdings]. Waystar (Nasdaq: WAY) earned $1,099M of revenue in 2025, up 17%, from about 30,000 clients representing over 1 million providers [A, Waystar release]. Experian Health sells patient access, eligibility and identity inside Experian plc. Zelis runs the payer-to-provider payment side: 725 payer clients, 850K+ providers and $300B+ of payment volume by its own count [C]. Bain Capital and Parthenon sold a minority stake to a Mubadala-led group that closed on 26 November 2024 [A, Kirkland & Ellis]; the reported $17B valuation is Bloomberg's, not opened here. Who owns the outsourced work. R1 RCM was taken private by TowerBrook and CD&R at about $8.9B, closing 19 November 2024 [A, CD&R]. Ensemble Health Partners began as Bon Secours Mercy Health's revenue-cycle arm; Golden Gate Capital bought 51% in 2019 in a deal reported at about $1.2B [B, Becker's]. athenahealth, bought by Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman for $17B [B, Healthcare Dive], bundles billing with its ambulatory record. The AI wave is already funded. AKASA (inpatient coding for 500 hospitals, by its own count) raised a $60M Series B led by BOND in 2021 [A]. Adonis raised a $40M Series C led by Quadrille Capital in March 2026, over $95M in total, and claims more than 4x revenue growth in 2025 [A, company release]. Candid Health raised a $52.5M Series C led by Oak HC/FT, $99.5M in total [B, HLTH]. Infinitus raised a $51.5M Series C led by Andreessen Horowitz, $102.9M in total, for AI agents that call payers [B, Pulse 2.0]. In credentialing, Medallion has raised $130M (latest $43M led by Acrew Capital, August 2025) and has acquired Andros [A]. CertifyOS raised a $40M Series B led by Transformation Capital in June 2025 [A]. Uno Health (Medicaid and benefits enrolment) was bought by Findhelp in October 2025 [B]. Canada. Provincial plans pay physicians, so the US claims-and-denials problem mostly does not exist. Billing is bundled with the record: more than 40,000 Canadian health professionals use a TELUS Health EMR [A, TELUS], and TELUS's CHR files OHIP claims through MDBilling [A, TELUS help centre]. mdbilling.ca now redirects to Dr.Bill, which claims 13,000+ physicians across OHIP, MSP and AHCIP [C]. TELUS eClaims covers direct billing to private insurers for allied health. Why a newcomer cannot get in. The clearinghouse and payment rails are owned by Optum, Availity (owned by payers), Waystar and Zelis. Each depends on connections to thousands of payers and on volume pricing. The outsourced hospital work is owned by private-equity platforms worth billions. Every point task an AI startup might attack (coding, denials, payer calls, credentialing, patient billing) already has a venture-backed player with $50M–$130M raised, and the incumbents are buying or building the same AI. Waystar's acquisition of Iodine is one example. In Canada the pain is small and the record vendors bundle it. Incumbent vulnerability decides it.

NAICS 62115 vendors named6 sourced figuresOpen →