NAICS 485210Canadian industry · 6-digitlocal market

Interurban and rural bus transportation

This Canadian industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in providing passenger transportation, principally outside a single municipality and its suburban areas, primarily by bus. These establishments operate over fixed routes and schedules, and charge a per-trip fee. — Statistics Canada, NAICS 2022A

Establishments · CanadaA
63
with employees
Under 10 employeesA
32%
most common size: 5–9
Establishments · USA
549
Employment · USA
13,538
25 per establishment
Payroll · USA
$560M
$41k per employee
01

Size and shape

How many businesses there are and how small they are. Fragmentation is the first thing an entrant — or anyone selling software into this industry — needs to know, and it is one of the few things that is actually measured.

Canadian establishments by number of employeesA

1–4711%
5–91321%
10–191321%
20–491219%
50–99711%
100–199813%
200–49935%
500+0—

Of 63 Canadian establishments with employees, 32% have fewer than ten — an industry where large establishments carry real weight.

Where they areA

Quebec1625%
Ontario1625%
British Columbia1016%
Alberta914%

Largest four provinces by establishment count. Establishments with employees only — sole operators with no payroll are not in this table, so in trades and personal services the true number of businesses is higher.

How many new establishments are still tradingA
Transportation and Warehousing, US · opened 2020
84.1%
1 year
67.4%
3 years
52.7%
5 years
36.1%
10 years
opened 2015

Measured, not forecast: the share of US establishments opening in one year that were still active later. It counts good operators and bad ones together, which is exactly why it is the honest answer to “what are the odds”. It is for the whole sector rather than this market, and the ten-year figure comes from an older cohort because no younger one has reached ten years.

02

How businesses here compete

The structural profile of subsector 485, which every industry beneath it inherits. This is analyst judgment from how the subsector is organised — not research into this industry, and not a measurement.

School bus and charter are contract businesses won at tender; taxi was repriced by ride-hailing. Revenue follows the contract term.

Who sets the price
Public contracts and regulated fares.
The software it runs on
Scheduling, routing and dispatch, including paratransit.
03

Market screens and studies

Market-entry records filed along this branch of the hierarchy. A record at or beneath this code is about this industry; one above it is about something wider that contains it.

Screened one level up. Nothing is filed at this exact code; the screen for 4852 Interurban and rural bus transportation covers it.

Operating businessScreenedfiled at 4852
Intercity Bus RouteOne thing must be true
binding constraint: willingness to pay

The opening looks obvious. Greyhound Canada shut every remaining route in May 2021 [B], Ontario deregulated intercity bus the same year, and only 63 establishments are left in the whole country [A]. A coach, a carrier licence and a ticketing site are enough to run a scheduled corridor. The cut is what the only continental network earned. When FirstGroup sold Greyhound Lines in October 2021 it disclosed $422.6M of revenue and $1.8M of adjusted operating profit for the prior year, took $172M in cash, and had to keep $320M of pension, self-insurance and lease liabilities to get the deal done [A]; the buyer's own release put the enterprise value at about $46M plus $32M deferred [A]. A pandemic year flatters nothing, but Greyhound had been retreating from Canada since 2018. The mechanism is the passenger: the intercity bus rider is the traveller without a car, choosing on price against a rideshare post, a discounted rail fare or not travelling. Fares cannot rise to cover a half-empty coach, and rural segments — the ones left unserved — are half-empty by construction; British Columbia and others now subsidise those directly. The dense corridors that do cover their cost are where the returning scale operator and the established regionals already run. An entrant gets the routes nobody wants at fares nobody can raise. Unlike School Bus Contracting (4854), there is no tender here guaranteeing the revenue. Transit scheduling software is screened separately.

NAICS 48525 vendors named10 sourced figuresOpen →
04

Software serving this industry

The vertical software markets filed along the same branch — who sells to these businesses and who they would have to displace — and then the generic categories every business buys whatever it does.

Sold across the wider branch

05

Who works here

The occupations employed in Transportation and warehousing, most concentrated in it first. The share is measured against the whole sector, not this industry — the published cross-tabulation stops there.

Concentrated in this sectorA

These jobs are mostly done here. An operator in this industry is competing for them against others in the same industry, not against the whole economy.

And the jobs every business has

Found across at least fourteen of the twenty sectors. In a small establishment several of these are usually one person, or an outside provider.

All 162 occupations →